Spain Energy Scenario Planner is an interactive policy analysis tool that explores how different energy levers interact to shape Spain’s power system. The model integrates generation capacity, storage, electricity demand, and policy variables to visualize trade-offs in decarbonization pathways.
This is a directional tool, not a precision tool. Move the sliders to discover how policy levers interact — solar orientation, BESS, grid corridor, electrification, weather years. The structural relationships (solar capture rate falls with scale; wind displaces gas more than solar; corridor unlocks curtailed renewables; demand growth rescues solar’s economics through the S-curve) are robust and reflect Spanish grid physics. The absolute numbers in €/tCO₂, €/MWh and TWh are indicative — calibrated to REE 2025 and Aurora/Ember/IRENA published values, but not predictive at single-decimal precision. Use this to understand what matters and why; for project-grade investment decisions, refer to a full hourly-dispatch model (PLEXOS, Aurora) with stochastic weather years.
The tool features a panel-based interface with ten interactive sections. Users can adjust solar orientation (south vs east-west split), total installed capacity, wind and nuclear fleets, battery storage, grid corridor capacity, demand growth, and financing conditions like WACC and gas peaker costs. A 2025 reference year is anchored to Red Eléctrica’s official data.
Key outputs update in real time: daily generation profiles for summer and winter, monthly generation versus demand, gas peaker consumption versus curtailment, and system costs. A dedicated policy cost comparison panel evaluates decarbonization options—nuclear life extension, onshore wind, solar PV, and grid corridors—by showing the cost per tonne of CO₂ reduced, with the solar cost dependent on orientation, storage, and demand context.
The model incorporates an S-curve framework that captures how solar and wind displacement rates evolve with demand growth, capturing saturation effects at low and high demand levels. Grid quality and corridor capacity are modeled to reduce curtailment, while field-level BESS provides daily cycling storage. Weather year scenarios allow stress-testing against dry, wet, and dunkelflaute conditions.
Validation against 2025 REE actuals shows the model reproduces measured generation, capture rates, and curtailment within ~2%, providing a directional rather than precision tool. This enables users to explore which policy levers matter most and in what order of magnitude, without the complexity of hourly dispatch models.